Vhiki rapera, misika yaifungidzira kuti yuan yakanga yava kusvika 7 yuan kudhora mushure mekuderera kwechipiri kwegore kwakatanga musi wa15 August.
Musi waGunyana 15, yuan yekumhiri kwemakungwa yakawira pasi pe7 yuan kusvika kudhora rekuAmerica, zvichimutsa nhaurirano yemusika.Kubva 10 o 'clock musi waGunyana 16, yuan yekumahombekombe yakatengesa pa7.0327 kudhora.Sei rakapwanyika 7 zvakare?Kutanga, indekisi yemadhora yakarova yakakwirira.Musi waGunyana 5, index yemadhora yakayambuka nhanho ye110 zvakare, ichirova makore makumi maviri.Izvi zvinonyanya kukonzerwa nezvikonzero zviviri: mamiriro ekunze achangobva kuitika muEurope, simba remagetsi rinokonzerwa nemhirizhonga yezvematongerwo enyika, uye tarisiro yekukwira kwemitengo inokurudzirwa nekudzoreredza kwemitengo yemagetsi, izvo zvese zvakavandudza njodzi yekuderera kwepasirese;Chechipiri, Fed Chairman Powell's "gondo" zvakataurwa pamusangano wepagore webhangi guru muJackson Hole muna Nyamavhuvhu wakasimudza tarisiro yemubereko zvakare.
Chechipiri, njodzi dzehupfumi dzeChina dzakawedzera.Mumwedzi ichangopfuura, pave paine zvinhu zvakawanda zvinokanganisa budiriro yeupfumi: kudzokororwa kwedenda munzvimbo zhinji kwakakanganisa budiriro yeupfumi;Kusiyana pakati pekupa uye kudiwa kwemagetsi mune dzimwe nzvimbo kunomanikidzwa kudzima magetsi, izvo zvinokanganisa kushanda kwehupfumi hwemazuva ose;Musika wezvivakwa wakakanganiswa ne "wave of disruption" uye maindasitiri mazhinji ane hukama akakanganiswawo.Kukura kwehupfumi kwakatarisana nekuderera gore rino.
Chekupedzisira, kusiyana kwegwara remari pakati peChina neUnited States kwakadzika, mwero wemhindu wenguva refu wakapararira pakati peChina neUnited States wakawedzera nekukurumidza, uye dhigirii rakapidiguka regoho rePfuma yakawedzera.Kukurumidza kudonha mukupararira pakati peUS neChinese 10-year Treasury bonds kubva ku113 BP pakutanga kwegore kusvika -65 BP musi waGunyana 1 kwakonzera kudzikiswa kwakasimba kwezvisungo zvemumba nemasangano ekunze.Muchokwadi, sezvo US yakawedzera mutemo wayo wemari uye dhora rakasimuka, dzimwe mari yekuchengetedza muSDR (Special Drawing Rights) tswanda yakawira pamusoro pedhora., iyo onshore yuan yakatengeswa pa7.0163 kudhora.
Chii chichava mhedzisiro yeRMB "kutyora 7" pamabhizinesi ekutengeserana ekunze?
Kupinza mabhizinesi: Mutengo uchawedzera here?
Zvikonzero zvakakosha zvekutenderera uku kweRMB kuderera kunopesana nedhora zvichiri: kukurumidza kuwedzera kwekusiyana kwemhindu yenguva refu pakati peChina neUnited States, uye kugadziridzwa kwemutemo wemari muUnited States.
Tichitarisa kukoshesa kwedhora rekuAmerica, dzimwe mari dzakachengetwa mubhasiketi reSDR(Special Drawing Rights) dzakadzikira zvakanyanya kana zvichienzaniswa nedhora rekuAmerica.Kubva muna Ndira kusvika Nyamavhuvhu, euro yakadzikira ne12%, pondo yeBritish yakadzikira ne14%, Yen yekuJapan yakadzikira ne17%, uye RMB yakadzikira ne8%.
Kuenzaniswa nedzimwe mari dzisiri dzemadhora, kudzikira kweyuan kwave kudiki.Mubhasikiti reSDR, kunze kwekuderera kwedhora reUnited States, RMB inokoshesa mari isiri yemadhora emadhora ekuAmerica, uye hapana kuderera kwehuwandu hweRMB.
Kana mabhizinesi ekunze akashandisa dhora rekugadzirisa, mutengo wayo unowedzera;Asi mutengo wekushandisa maeuro, sterling uye yen wakaderedzwa.
Kubva 10 am Sept. 16, euro yaitengesa pa 7.0161 yuan;Pondo yakatengeswa pa8.0244;Iyo yuan yakatengeswa pa20.4099 yen.
Export mabhizinesi: Mamiriro akanaka emutengo wekuchinjana ane mashoma
Kune mabhizinesi ekunze anonyanya kushandisa madhora ekuUS, hapana kupokana kuti kudzikira kwerenminbi kunounza nhau dzakanaka, nzvimbo yepurofiti yebhizinesi inogona kuvandudzwa zvakanyanya.
Asi makambani anogara mune dzimwe mari dzemazuva ano achiri kuda kuramba akatarisa pamitengo yekuchinjana.
Kune mabhizinesi madiki uye epakati nepakati, isu tinofanirwa kutarisisa kuti iyo yekutsinhana mukana mukana inoenderana nenguva yekuverengera.Kana pane kukanganiswa, maitiro akanaka ehuwandu hwekuchinjana huchava husina hanya.
Kuchinja kwekuchinja kwemari kunogonawo kuita kuti vatengi vatarisire kukoshesa kwedhora, zvichikonzera kumanikidzwa kwemutengo, kunonoka kwekubhadhara uye mamwe mamiriro ezvinhu.
Mabhizinesi anofanirwa kuita basa rakanaka mukudzora njodzi uye manejimendi.Havafanire kungoferefeta kumashure kwevatengi zvakadzama, asi zvakare, kana zvichidikanwa, tora matanho akadai sekuwedzera zvakakodzera chikamu chedhipoziti, kutenga inishuwarenzi yechikwereti chekutengesa, kushandisa RMB kugadzirisa zvakanyanya sezvinobvira, kuvhara chiyero chekuchinjana kuburikidza ne "hedging" uye kupfupisa nguva yechokwadi yemutengo kudzora kukanganisa kwakashata kwekuchinja kwemitengo.
03 Mazano ekugadzirisa kutengeserana kunze kwenyika
Exchange rate fluctuation ipfumo rinocheka kaviri, mamwe mabhizinesi ekutengeserana ekunze atanga kushingaira kugadzirisa "lock exchange" uye mitengo kuti vawedzere kukwikwidza kwavo.
IPayLinks matipi: Mhedzisiro yekutsinhana kwengozi manejimendi iri mu "kuchengetedza" pane "kutenda", uye "exchange lock" (hedging) ndiyo inonyanya kushandiswa chiyero chekuchinjana hedging chishandiso parizvino.
Nezve mwero wekuchinjana weRMB uchipesana nedhora rekuAmerica, mabhizinesi ekutengeserana kunze kwenyika anogona kutarisa nezvemishumo yakakodzera yemusangano weFederal Reserve FOMC wekuseta mhindu musi waGunyana 22, nguva yeBeijing.
Sekureva kweCME's Fed Watch, mukana weiyo Fed kukwidza mhindu nemakumi manomwe neshanu mapoinzi panosvika Gunyana i80%, uye mukana wekukwidza mhindu ne100 basis points i20%.Pane 36% mukana wekuwedzera 125 hwaro hwekutanga panosvika Mbudzi, 53% mukana we150 hwaro hwekuwedzera uye 11% mukana we175 hwaro hwekuwedzera.
Kana iyo Fed ikaramba ichisimudza mibairo zvine hutsinye, iyo US dollar index ichasimuka zvakasimba zvakare uye dhora reUS richasimbisa, izvo zvichawedzera kuwedzera kuderera kweRMB nedzimwe mari dzisiri dzeUS.
Nguva yekutumira: Sep-20-2022